Premier Ford’s government is set to release its long awaited spring Budget on May 15, which was delayed due to provincial election on February 27 and the federal election on April 28.
Given current global economic instability, the provincial Budget is less likely to be about fiscal restraint and is more likely to include spending to protect jobs, workers and industry as well as include new tax cuts.
Outlook
Ford’s Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will need to find a budget balance between supporting the economy and maintaining the public services that Ontarians rely on, such as health care, infrastructure, roads and education.
The 2025 provincial budget will also likely emphasize partnership with the new federal government, under Prime Minister Carney, to protect Canada’s economy from tariffs and call on the federal government for increased federal funding transfers to the province for health care and housing and increasing inter-provincial trade.
PC Platform and Budget Expectations
Ford’s PC Party election platform called “Protect Ontario” also gives some clear indications about what to expect on May 15:
Supporting business and industry impacted by trade tariffs: In April 2025, the province announced deferred tax payments for businesses and employer rebates aimed at preserving jobs. On May 5, the province committed to expand the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit, reducing the tax rates for manufacturers to invest in Ontario.
Investing in key sectors: The PC election platform committed new investments in growth industries including manufacturing, life sciences and technology sectors as well as accelerating approvals for mining projects in Ontario.
Increasing access to health care: The budget will continue funding to increase Ontarians’ access to family doctors and other health care professionals, while also investing in new hospital expansions and long-term care residences. The platform also included a commitment to expand scope of practice for registered nurses and physiotherapists.
Building more housing: The Ontario budget may address Prime Minister Carney’s commitment to build more affordable housing quickly across Canada. The Ontario budget will commit more funding for housing-enabling infrastructure to municipalities while calling for more federal and provincial collaboration on housing investments.
Tax cuts for Ontarians: The budget may include potential gas tax cuts to reduce cost of living for Ontarians, also aligned with Prime Minister Carney’s decision to cancel the consumer carbon tax.
What’s Next?
Over the next couple of weeks, the province will continue to rollout “pre-budget announcements” that will provide a preview of some of the budget items that the province wishes to showcase ahead of the full budget release on May 15.
With an ever-evolving political and economic trade climate, the Ontario budget may require some fine-tuning right up until the moment it is tabled in the legislature. With Prime Minister Carney set to undertake his first trade mission on May 6, 2025, the Ontario government will continue to react and respond by putting in place new measures to balance the needs of the economy and employers, while protecting critical provincial services.